An Anti-Tanking Draft Model
What if bad teams were rewarded for winning instead of losing?
Since the infamous 1985 "Lose for Ewing" tank year, the NBA has struggled with teams intentionally losing to secure better draft picks. The lottery was introduced to combat this, but tanking is worse than ever. Ewing Points flips the incentive entirely.
Losses always earn 0 points. Points start after each team's 20th game. Tiers are recalculated daily based on current conference standings. At season's end, non-playoff teams are ranked by Ewing Points — most points picks first. No lottery. No luck involved.
See how Ewing Points would have changed the draft — compared to the actual lottery results and traditional record-based order.
| Pick | Ewing Points | EP | By Record | Actual (Lottery) |
|---|
Pick a team and season to see their Ewing Points journey throughout the year.
Who picks #1 under each system across all 10 seasons?
| Season | Ewing #1 | Record #1 | Actual #1 |
|---|
The numbers are clear — but the real stories make the case. Here are three seasons that show exactly why this model fixes the draft.
5 top-two finishes in Ewing Points. 0 top picks to show for it.
From 2015 to 2022, the Pelicans were the definition of competitive losers — bad enough to be in the lottery every year, but winning 30+ games because they had stars out there fighting every night. The current system punished them for it.
| Season | Record | Ewing Pick | Would Have Drafted | Actual Pick | Actually Got |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | 30-52 | #2 | Brandon Ingram | #6 | Buddy Hield |
| 2016-17 | 34-48 | #2 | Lonzo Ball | — | No pick |
| 2019-20 | 30-42 | #1 | Anthony Edwards | #13 | Kira Lewis Jr. |
| 2020-21 | 31-41 | #1 | Cade Cunningham | #10 | Ziaire Williams |
| 2021-22 | 36-46 | #1 | Paolo Banchero | #8 | Dyson Daniels |
Under Ewing Points, New Orleans would have drafted three #1 picks and two #2 picks across five lottery seasons. Instead, the lottery gave them Buddy Hield, Kira Lewis Jr., and Dyson Daniels. The current system doesn't just fail to prevent tanking — it punishes the teams that refuse to do it.
40-42 record. 61 Ewing Points. #1 overall pick.
The Thunder went .500 in 2022-23 — a young team on the rise, competing hard every night. Under the current system, they picked 12th and got Dereck Lively II. Meanwhile, the Spurs tanked to a league-worst record and were rewarded with Victor Wembanyama.
Under Ewing Points, OKC's 40 competitive wins — mostly earned while ranked 9th-15th in the West — would have given them the #1 pick and Victor Wembanyama. The team that was actually trying to win gets the generational talent. The Spurs, who went 22-60, would have picked 9th.
Imagine the drama: every Thunder win down the stretch is worth 2 Ewing Points, with Wembanyama on the line. That's appointment television.
The winningest lottery team in a decade — rewarded, not punished.
Golden State went 46-36 in 2023-24 and still missed the playoffs. Under the current system, they didn't even have a lottery pick. Under Ewing Points, their 46 wins — many earned while hovering around the play-in cutoff — made them the #1 pick with 52 EP.
Meanwhile, Detroit went 14-68 — the worst record in over a decade. That doesn't happen by accident. You don't win 14 games in an 82-game season unless you are actively trying to lose. Under the current system, tanking that hard is rewarded with the #1 pick. Under Ewing Points, Detroit picks 12th.
That's the point. If every team knows the only way to get a top pick is to win while you're bad, you would never see a 14-win season again. No more sitting your best players. No more trading away every veteran at the deadline. The incentive to tank disappears overnight.
How does the Ewing Points model treat tankers vs. competitive losers? Across all 140 team-seasons, the relationship is perfectly monotonic — more wins means a better pick delta.
Most punished by Ewing Points — teams that tanked and got a worse pick
| Rank | Season | Team | Record | Actual Pick | Record Pick | Ewing Pick | Delta |
|---|
Most rewarded by Ewing Points — competitive losers who earned a better pick
| Rank | Season | Team | Record | Actual Pick | Record Pick | Ewing Pick | Delta |
|---|